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March 8, 2022

Ukraine
Preventing a Wider European Conflict

To prevent Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine from escalating into a wider European conflict, Thomas Graham recommends that the United States bolster its deterrence efforts with NATO partners, whil…

Russian servicemen drive tanks during military exercises in the Leningrad Region, Russia.

April 11, 2012

South China Sea
Armed Clash in the South China Sea

In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update. Introduction The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…

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February 26, 2019

China
Averting a Cross-Strait Crisis

Domestic politics in China, political trends in Taiwan, and changing U.S. policy toward Taiwan are increasing the risk of a cross-strait crisis in the coming months. The United States should take ste…

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen visits the Sixth Army Command, ahead of Lunar New Year, in Taoyuan, Taiwan, January 25, 2019.

July 1, 2020

Afghanistan
A Failed Afghan Peace Deal

The United States has reached an agreement with the Taliban, but significant challenges, such as political power-sharing, the role of Islam, and women’s rights, remain for achieving intra-Afghan peac…

Afghan men attend a consultative grand assembly, known as Loya Jirga, in Kabul, Afghanistan, on April 29, 2019

April 22, 2013

Territorial Disputes
A Sino-Japanese Clash in the East China Sea

Introduction Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…

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