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October 25, 2004

Economics
In the second Presidential debate …

President Bush was asked to name three mistakes he had made. He declined, other than to hint that perhaps he had hired a couple of people he should not have (Paul O’Neill, I suspect he meant you). …

October 29, 2004

Financial Markets
David Wessel visited the Harvard economics department

Or at least talked to Summers and Rogoff, before writing his Thursday Wall Street Journal column. It is worth reading if you have access to the Journal. I agree with his bottom line: getting out of…

November 3, 2004

Economics
the best recovery money can buy

One interpretation of the results of the US election is that Ray Fair’s model (am having trouble with the interface, so no link -- it is available on nouriel’s web page in the elections section) was …

November 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Will partial privatization of social security pass the global test?

This post is primarily about the implications of partial privatization of social security on the budget, not about its overall merits. For what it is worth, I personally think good old pay-as-you-go …

November 18, 2004

Taking away the punch bowl when the party is really getting going?

That is the classic view of the role of the central bank. It extends beyond using monetary policy to prevent "overheating" and price inflation. Most central bank regulate the banking system, and si…

November 20, 2004

Politics and Government
Optimist or Ostrich?

For those who want dispassionate economic analysis devoid of politics, read no further. Wait for my next dollar post. This is a center-left response to the Lexington column in this week’s Economist…

November 23, 2004

The budget deficit before all the bad stuff

Isn’t that what leaving any increase in deficit associated with partial privatization of social security off the books implies?Bush’s formula on the dollar in Santiago emphasized the need to control …

November 24, 2004

Financial Markets
Chinese yuan hits new low against euro, swiss franc, pound …

Just a reminder of what falling dollar currently means. Dollar depreciation is clearly part of what is needed to bring the US trade deficit down to a more sustainable level. But what is the case fo…

November 30, 2004

United States
Their savings, our problem?

It seems like American households are now saving about a penny of every dollar they earn, and recently even less. Foreigners exporting to the US, in contrast, save roughly 35 cents of every dollar …

December 5, 2004

The borrower industrial complex

Sunday’s New York Times article on US consumer culture -- and its financial enablers -- has a domestic focus. But doesn’t the term "borrower-industrial complex" describe American’s relationship with…