Overview Crisis in the Congo describes the Democratic Republic of the Congo's near-term vulnerability to convulsive electoral violence and renewed rebellion on its periphery. In this Contingency P…

Overview Al-Qaeda remains committed to striking the United States, but its capacity has been limited by counterterrorism efforts and so might work with or through associated Pakistani outfits to l…

In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update. Introduction The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…

Introduction Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Ir…

In March 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Venezuela. Read the update. Introduction In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant po…