from Center for Preventive Action

Crisis in the Congo

Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 11

May 18, 2011

Contingency Planning Memorandum
Contingency Planning Memoranda identify plausible scenarios that could have serious consequences for U.S. interests and propose measures to both prevent and mitigate them.

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Democratic Republic of Congo

Elections and Voting

Political Transitions

Conflict Prevention

Overview

Crisis in the Congo describes the Democratic Republic of the Congo's near-term vulnerability to convulsive electoral violence and renewed rebellion on its periphery. In this Contingency Planning Memorandum, Joshua Marks argues that the most prudent steps the United States can take to reduce the likelihood of these contingencies are to increase coordinated international pressure on President Joseph Kabila not to compromise the legitimacy of the electoral process and to support a more robust UN presence during the electoral period. He recommends greater electoral oversight for the purpose of more effectively conditioning international support to the Congolese government and utilizing both incentives and increasingly stiff economic and diplomatic penalties in the event of destabilizing regime behavior.

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