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January 26, 2005

Monetary Policy
The US dollar fails the Chinese test

So China wants to adopt a basket peg because it no longer thinks the dollar is a stable store of value. To quote Mr. Fan, Director of China’s National Institute for Economic Research:The U.S. dollar …

August 5, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
40% y/y growth is hard to sustain

Regular readers know that I am convinced that the pace of Chinese export growth will slow.   That is a bit at odds with parts of the conventional wisdom.  There is a widespread sense that China is th…

August 11, 2005

China
China’s economy in 2005 is not what it was in 2000

China always has depended on export-led growth.   It is a core reason why China has been so successful.  China is just trying to hold on to the core of its success in the face of political pressure f…

Exports to GDP

August 17, 2005

Emerging Markets
Fuel subsidies (and fuel shortages) in emerging economies

If you care to head to Baghdad - and are willing to wait in line - you can fill up your car with premium gasoline for 3.3 cents a liter (around 13 cents a gallon).  Basic gasoline goes for just more …

September 4, 2005

China
If it is still a dollar peg, where is the monetary policy flexiblity?

I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…