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July 10, 2009

Weekly Federal Reserve balance sheet update

This post is by Mark Dow This just hit my inbox, from the research team at Barclays. Since we’ve talked a fair amount of late about the Fed balance sheet, I thought I’d pass it on. "Weekly Federal …

July 7, 2009

Brazilian vehicle sales vs US vehicle sales, 2001-2009, normalized Muito Forte

This is Mark Dow here. Brad’s still on vacation. Here’s a quick chart  for anyone questioning the conditional convergence growth hypothesis in emerging markets. In English, the hypothesis loosely p…

August 3, 2009

Turning on a Paradigm

This post is by Mark Dow Very few things rouse the rabble as much as an ideological debate. And over the past year it has been looking like we are having the beginnings of a nasty one in economics …

July 8, 2009

The M2 Money Multiplier vs Base Money, last 16 months The Monkey Multiplier

This is Mark Dow. Brad is still away. There has been a lot of response to the assertion I made the other day that base money has not been growing since December, and that the money multiplier is not…

July 15, 2009

DXY, last 12 months Nothing brings out buyers like higher prices, and other short stories

This post is by Mark Dow DXY, a dollar index, looks like it has started to break down. At my firm, Pharo, we have been whispering on the trading desk over the last two days that this was looking inc…

July 10, 2009

China
Chinese trade balance, 2002-2009 Chinese Handcuffs? No, Chinese trade deficit

This is Mark Dow. Brad is away. China has become the obsession that Japan was back in the 80s. And rightly so. It is a huge place, with a robust secular growth force underlying it (remember the cond…

July 9, 2009

Brazilian Real vs Turkish Lira, over the past year The lunch may be free, but how much is it worth?

This is Mark Dow. Brad is still away. Diversification is the only free lunch in investing. But the way many investment managers sing its praises, one can’t help but wonder if its value is overstated…

July 13, 2009

Beat Down

I have a couple of themes on which I wanted to post, but they will most likely have to wait for later. The market, in the words of the E*Trade commercial, is issuing me a bit of a beat down today, an…

July 6, 2009

Dollar Index 2004 -2009 The Dollar: It’s an Overhang, not a Hangover

Few things are more confounding to economists and traders as forecasting currencies. However, as I have come to realize, the approach each group takes is very different. Economists are never wrong, o…

December 10, 2004

United States
Dow Jones: Central banks do not seem to be dumping dollars

That’s the tag on p. C4 of the Wall Street Journal.The smart money -- and regular readers of this blog -- know that this is real question is not whether central banks are, in aggregate, dumping dolla…