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March 1, 2006

United States
Rising trade deficit financed by fast-growing poor countries watch

Consumption up.   Up by almost 1% in a month.   Consumption continues to grow faster than income.    Household savings, consequently, are down.    Michael Mandel, are you sure you want to argue that …

March 27, 2006

United States
Good thing Michael Mandel read my 2004 paper, not my 2005 paper -

With the 2004 paper on US external sustainability, there is at least some possibility that Nouriel's and my dire forecasts will prove to be right.   The core argument of that paper is that the co…

May 25, 2006

United States
You know, there are safe havens that do not have a current account deficit of $1 trillion …

Incidentally, I am not the only one who thinks that the US current account deficit is heading toward a trillion.   The OECD now forecasts $965b current account deficit in 2006 (7.2% of GDP), and $107…

June 12, 2006

United States
Calculation envy - the last US owned Treasury bill will be bought by the People’s Bank in 2012 …

Niall Ferguson had a big weekend.   His article on the United States’ propensity to go into debt gets published in the New York Times Magazine.  He compares the US economy to a dinosaur named debtlod…

June 18, 2006

Emerging Markets
A hard landing in 2006 - just not in the US?

Nouriel and I postulated back in early 2005 that there was a meaningful risk that the next “emerging market” crisis might come from the US – and it might come sooner than most expected.   The basic q…

July 13, 2006

United States
US oil imports (in volume terms) may have plateaued, but has the US trade deficit peaked?

Jeremey Peters' New York Times article on the trade deficit says that there is no sign that the US demand for oil imports is slowing.   The evidence: oil imports, in millions of barrels per day, …

non_petroleum_07_2006

September 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
Watch out China, you may soon be (financially) out-gunned …

China’s July reserve increase – at least if the end-July total of $954.5b that the Chinese leaked is right (Lex had a slightly higher number) – was pathetic. A measly $14b.  Not the manly $20…

October 2, 2006

United States
Daniel Gross is right …

The increase in the interest bill of the US government is an underreported story.   The CBO reports that FY 2006 interest payments will be about $40b more than FY 2005 payments.  And that trend is se…

October 3, 2006

Monetary Policy
Bretton Woods 2 lives

The IMF released its data on global reserve growth on Friday.   And – to no one’s real surprise – the IMF data indicated that there is one key reason why capital flows uphill in today’s global econom…

October 17, 2006

China
A trillion dollars here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money

I have written extensively about China and Chinese reserve growth recently. So I won’t use Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal article as the spring board for another long post.  Just a sort of long post.T…