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September 23, 2004

United States
The currency strategist at Morgan Stanley might want to talk to the chief economist at Morgan Stanley

Steve Johnson’s market insight column in Thursday’s Financial Times keys off Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist Stephen Jen’s argument that "As long as Asia insists on staying inside this dollar ar…

March 4, 2005

Emerging Markets
A few lessons for Mary Anastasia O Grady

I do not expect to consistently agree with the oped page of the Wall Street Journal. But I do not think it is too much to ask that the columnists on oped page of the Journal try to square their argu…

October 11, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
W makes LBJ look like a fiscal conservative.

So says Jim Cramer. LBJ, to his credit, believed that there were limits to profligacy and that taxes had to be raised. Not President Bush. He's making Johnson look like a fiscal conservative, wha…

December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
The yen, for a change

The yen's trajectory at the end of 2005 seems a bit like the dollar's trajectory at the end of 2004.   With the yen at 120, companies like Toyota presumably have little incentive to ramp up t…

December 4, 2005

Financial Markets
At last, some real evidence to back my argument on petrodollars

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has spoken; OPEC's dollar holdings are up and its euro holdings down. The prolific Steve Johnson in the Financial Times: Middle Eastern oil exporters…

January 17, 2006

United States
Where is the trade deficit heading? How I differ from Justin Lahart (and a few others)

Justin Lahart (of the Wall Street Journal's Ahead of the Tape column) correctly called the fall in the monthly trade deficit last Thursday. But he - channeling Jim Griffin of ING investment manag…

January 18, 2006

China
Shrewd, far-sighted and pro-growth …

India's economy policy has not been as "shrewd, far-sighted and pro-growth" as China's.  That's why Nick Kristof is betting on the former communists in Beijing, not the Oxbridge/ Reserve …

March 22, 2006

China
Stephen Roach is well worth reading today

Roach has access to a slightly higher level of policy makers than either the author - or I suspect most of the readers - of this blog.   Particularly in China.   He didn't learn of Wen's crit…

April 28, 2006

Why does China have a looser monetary policy than the United States?

We know why the global economy grew strongly in the first quarter.   Nothing changed.  Or rather, the basic pattern that has driven global growth for the past few years intensified.The US continued t…

April 30, 2006

Can the dollar block survive another bout of dollar weakness?

In case you haven't noticed, the dollar is now closer to 1.30 (v. the euro) than 1.20 - or even 1.15.  Carry is no longer king.   There is talk of a "regime change" in the fx market.  Or at least…