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March 29, 2005

United States
Too big to behave rashly

According to Andrew Samwick, the world’s central banks are too big to behave rashly. As he puts it: "We’re too big an economy, and our creditors’ portfolio holdings are simply too large for them to …

July 6, 2005

Worrying about debt to China

Jesse Eisinger has a nice Long and Short column exploring CNOOC’s bid for Unocal in the Wall Street Journal. I liked this quote from Lehman’s Ethan Harris:The Cnooc bid "strikes people that we really…

September 6, 2005

Capital Flows
Is Iraq an economic success? (What is Patrick Clawson thinking?)

I think it is fair to say that I see the world - and Iraq's economy -- very differently than Patrick Clawson.  Clawson argues in the New Republic that Iraq currently is financing most of its own …

November 17, 2005

Can the Pentagon balance Chinese power …

with money the Treasury borrows from China?  Ok, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia ... The answer so far has been yes.   The Pentagon - or at least influential voices in the Pentagon - want to discoura…

July 20, 2007

Financial Markets
Oil and the dollar

Oil is once again quite strong.    Last summers’ rally was driven in part by a rise the geopolitical risk premium.   This summers’ rally seems a product of both strong global growth and relatively re…

July 24, 2007

Monetary Policy
Voldemort’s invisibility cloak

There is something about SAFE -- maybe the fact that its full name, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, seems to come straight from the Ministry of (Bureaucratic) Magic --  that seems to in…

March 20, 2008

Petrodollars: How to Spend It

Rachel ZiembaNote: This post is by Rachel Ziemba, filling in for Brad Setser Despite the fact that the price of oil and in fact almost all commodities has slid in recent days, they are up substantial…


June 3, 2009

Capital Flows
Financing U.S. Debt

U.S. government borrowing has grown substantially since the start of the economic crisis. Many fear that this trend will diminish U.S. power relative to other countries, particularly large creditor…


November 18, 2010

Politics and Government
The Gauntlet Is Thrown Down

Walking by Westminster this morning I was reminded of the grandeur of democracy.  Watching the battle back in Washington over the New START Treaty, I am reminded that democratic practice is often m…

The Gauntlet Is Thrown Down

November 23, 2010

Politics and Government
Obama’s Gamble

The White House can count well as anyone else.  Passing the New START Treaty during the lame-duck session means holding all fifty-eight Senate Democrats and picking up nine Republican votes.  But…

Obama’s Gamble