Billmon has an interesting post up that lays out his take on the current state of the economy. It includes an interesting analysis of how a slowing US will interact with the new Bretton Woods 2 syst…

Two apologies in advance: First, this is one my wonkier/ data-intensive kind of posts. Second, this post responds to a subscription only Wall Street Journal C4 article by Agnes Crane that ran last …

I have long worried that as the carry trade gets less profitable (i.e. the difference between the interest rate on short-term and long-term debt falls), hedge funds would respond by doubling up their…

The market seems to have concluded that there is no need to put any pressure on the US to reduce its large external deficits. The dollar is up, at least against the euro. So is the renminbi for th…

The trade deficit fell in March. So did the capital flows needed to sustain ongoing trade deficits. Net inflows of $45.7 billion a month are not enough to sustain even $55 billion monthly trade def…