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April 30, 2005

Monetary Policy
So, have central banks lost interest in Treasuries?

Two apologies in advance: First, this is one my wonkier/ data-intensive kind of posts. Second, this post responds to a subscription only Wall Street Journal C4 article by Agnes Crane that ran last …

February 16, 2006

Monetary Policy
So where exactly are all the world’s reserves going?

We don't yet formally know the BEA's estimate for the end of the year current account deficit, but we have a pretty good idea.  We also now have a lot of data about how the US financed its current ac…

March 29, 2006

China
Exit Schumer and Graham, Enter Grassley and Baucus

Schumer-Graham won't be brought to a vote until September.   China's central bank governor Zhou must  be persuasive.  Maybe he plotted out where the RMB will likely be if China continues with its cur…

June 21, 2006

United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…

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July 26, 2006

Emerging Markets
Is Saudi Arabia the new IMF?

Last week I was beginning to think the IMF might be back in business.   A couple of press reports hinted that Lebanon’s central bank was facing real pressure.    Folks fleeing the country wanted doll…