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January 30, 2005

Financial Markets
Stephen Jen might want to rejigger his model

Apparently, Mr. Jen thinks the dollar -- despite the United States’ 6.2% of GDP current account deficit -- is significantly undervalued against all major currencies, and fairly valued against most As…

June 27, 2005

China
Martin Wolf makes sense (the Economist does not)

Martin Wolf’s FT column makes a number of crucial points:1) Asia has let undervalued exchange rates (and reserve accumulation) substitute for policies to promote domestic demand. The (growing) back…

July 18, 2005

China
If your reserves are growing by $300 billion a year

China indicated its reserves have increased to $711 billion at the end of June -- up $101 billion from the end of December 2004. Actually, they are up more than that. China transferred $15 billion …

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

August 15, 2005

United States
The puzzling global flow of funds

I am less impressed by the June TIC data than the markets.   Yes, foreign purchases of US corporate debt skyrocketed, but foreign demand for Treasuries disappeared.  Total "private" purchases of US d…