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November 30, 2004

Emerging Markets
Just because one dollar currently buys something like a million and half Turkish lira …

That does not necessarily mean the Turkish lira is cheap. Right now, given Turkey’s almost US scale current account deficit (close to 5% of GDP), the lira probably is a bit overvalued. Turkey is go…

December 7, 2004

United States
No Warm Glow from the Nobel Prize Here

Or more precisely, one of this year’s Nobel Prize winners in Economics seems to disagree with parts of the analysis Nouriel and I have been putting forward. It seems like Nouriel and I don’t underst…

December 11, 2004

United States
The Global Test

My harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…

December 22, 2004

Martin Wolf explains the fall in the renminbi-dollar

Martin Wolf did the math: it turns out the renminbi-dollar zone has a current account deficit (projected) of $260 billion with the world this year. The United States’ current account deficit of $650…

December 22, 2004

One more point on Martin Wolf

It is a simple point, but an important one. Wolf says the United States would be fine if it reduced its current account deficit from 6% of GDP to 3% of GDP. External debt to GDP then stabilizes at …

December 29, 2004

If you cannot beat em, join em

Daniel Gross’s article on the currency preferences of the world’s underworld is too good not to link to. It seems like the world’s drug lords are less willing than the People’s Bank of China to fina…

January 24, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Hubbard is in pole position: the Sunday New York Time buried the lede

Apparently the Federal Reserve is beginning to worry that the Administration is not all that serious about reducing the fiscal deficit ... Wonder why. It seems like Martin Feldstein’s concerns abou…

March 9, 2005

Emerging Markets
Brad DeLong covers the Argentine crisis, in one night

DeLong is clearly working his way through Paul Blustein’s book on Argentina. Martin Wolf has a column on Argentina’s restructuring in yesterday’s Financial Times, which I quite liked, for rather obv…

April 19, 2005

Emerging Markets
Martin Wolf, Korea’s Central Bank, and Collateralized Debt Obligations

Somehow, all three are linked together today in my mind. And at some level, they do all connect. As Martin Wolf notes, Asia’s current account surplus (savings surplus) shows up in the phenomenal gr…

April 27, 2005

United States
The comfortable road to ruin …

Read Martin Wolf’s latest column. His focus on emerging economies -- particularly in Asia -- is dead on. The "glut" of global savings originates there, far more than in Europe. The Euro zone’s cur…