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Introduction
Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…
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June 21, 2006
United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?
As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me. I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…
June 27, 2006
United States
A soft landing means sustained $1 trillion plus (7% of GDP) current account deficits …
Over the past few years, US imports have grown faster than US exports. The result -- to no one surprise: an expanding trade deficit. Because of the gap between imports and exports, US exports nee…
July 3, 2006
United States
Paging Michael Mandel. I give up … there isn’t that much to worry about. At least not judging from the 2005 NIIP data.
OK, I am not really ready to give up. But the 2005 net international investment position (NIIP) data sure didn't provide me much to work with.For a couple of years now I have been warning against th…
September 20, 2006
Europe
Is it Europe’s turn to rise a housing bubble?
Both Morgan Stanley (at least Eric Chaney) and JP Morgan (in their latest global outlook) now recognize that Europe has emerged as an important engine of global demand growth. Indeed, the 2005 sur…
October 2, 2006
United States
Daniel Gross is right …
The increase in the interest bill of the US government is an underreported story. The CBO reports that FY 2006 interest payments will be about $40b more than FY 2005 payments. And that trend is se…