I will be away from my desk for the next week or so on a business trip.  I'll probably post a bit, modern communications and all.  But I doubt I'll post every day.    I suspect that a couple of the c…

The health of the US economy - and for that matter the world economy - hinges on the sustained flow of capital from the world's emerging economies to the US.   The health of the US economy also depen…

The market thinks that the (bad) q4 GDP number is old news; the economy is looking far better in q1.   The market is also banking on stronger export growth to help support US growth in 2006.  See Jus…

The 2005 current account deficit: $805 billion. or 6.4% of US GDP That is a bit smaller than I expected.    The q3 deficit was revised down.  Reinsurance payments were higher than initially foreca…

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument that th…