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November 6, 2004

Politics and Government
Bush considering to a tax hike for most Americans?

Isn’t that what a revenue neutral flat tax or a national sales tax implies, particularly one that exempts investment income from any taxation? (as Cheney reportedly is pushing). In all honesty, it …

December 19, 2004

The Teutonic Monetary Policy Tradition

My recent travels took me to old Europe -- and reminded me that the rest of the world is, in many ways, still unprepared for changes set to hit the world economy -- a world economy where the US trade…

December 29, 2004

United States
Look who is supporting the mortgage market …

No Surprise: the People’s Bank of China. The PBOC has shifted from buying treasuries (03) to buying mortgage backed securities (04).From Reuters: "Make no bones about it, mortgages really went globa…

July 30, 2005

United States
Since the US government is unwilling to take any action, the US current account deficit cannot be a problem.

The IMF just published its annual report on the US economy. The report was in some ways remarkably frank.    And it outlined the core policy choice the US government has made, namely, not to do anyth…

August 26, 2005

Monetary Policy
Preparing for shifts in the balance of financial power?

It seems like some in Asia are a bit worried that so much of the world's wealth is denominated in the currency of the world's largest debtor.  Cynic's Delight highlights their concerns we…

November 28, 2005

China still pegs to the dollar …

And it intervenes in a big way in both the spot and the forward market.  But it doesn't manipulate its currency.  At least not technically.   The US Treasury - in a widely telegraphed move - deci…

April 12, 2006

United States
Watch for imports to surge in March

China's March trade surplus topped $11b - and its goods exports were a very impressive $78 billion.  China February surplus was about $2.5 billion, and its exports only 54.1 billion.  China had a…

Watch for imports to surge in March

April 13, 2006

Financial Markets
Abridged Roubini on oil at $70 — and not-so-abridged Setser on Petrodollars

A condensed version of Dr. Roubini's latest post:"I was wrong about the impact of $40 oil, but I'll be right about the impact of $70 oil."I know Dr. Roubini was wrong about the impact of $40 …

Abridged Roubini on oil at $70 — and not-so-abridged Setser on Petrodollars

August 1, 2006

United States
How long can the US retain a comparative advantage as a “storehouse for wealth”

If foreigners investing in the US keep doing so badly? That would be my question for John Makin.    I don’t doubt the superior liquidity of US markets. I realize that there are only so…

October 7, 2006

Financial Markets
Italian (oil) realism

Paolo Scaroni (interviewed by Jad Mouawad in the New York Times) points out that if Americans continue to drive SUVs with oil at $60 a barrel, oil isn't all that high.  Scaroni heads an oil compa…