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November 23, 2004

The budget deficit before all the bad stuff

Isn’t that what leaving any increase in deficit associated with partial privatization of social security off the books implies?Bush’s formula on the dollar in Santiago emphasized the need to control …

February 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Oil, and a bit of geopolitics

On Thursday, the Financial Times, the New York Times and Tom Friedman all weighed in on Asian reserve diversification. Paul Blustein of the Washington Post has an A1 story today on another of my comm…

May 1, 2005

China
Will China get hit by the cover jinx?

It is a bit hard to start shorting the renminbi (RMB/ the Chinese currency) just because China has now made its appearance on the cover of Newsweek. It is hard to short something that has yet to be …

August 5, 2005

Capital Flows
China, the US and the geopolitics of oil

The CNOOC Unocal saga is over. But CNOOC's ambitions remain: Energy market experts now expect Cnooc, which is controlled by the Beijing government, to explore opportunities throughout the Asia-Pa…

September 5, 2005

Economics
Those Louisiana ports, once again

They truly are of fundamental importance to the US economy - particularly the agricultural economy of the Midwest.  George Friedman of Statfor asks a good question?  How effectively can a port functi…

October 6, 2005

Economics
The Port of New Orleans, once again

It seems that George Friedman of Stratfor is right: it is hard to operate a port without a city.  The Port of New Orleans is open, but hardly operating at full capacity.   From the New York Times: Mo…

November 26, 2005

Economics
Kansas is flat, the world is not …

To paraphrase the New Economist, the Financial Times must think the world is flat.  They just gave Tom Friedman the inaugural Financial Times/ Goldman Sachs book prize last week - for a book based on…

chart 1

January 18, 2006

China
Shrewd, far-sighted and pro-growth …

India's economy policy has not been as "shrewd, far-sighted and pro-growth" as China's.  That's why Nick Kristof is betting on the former communists in Beijing, not the Oxbridge/ Reserve …

February 22, 2006

Capital Flows
The (strange) politics of globalization

Maybe the US would be better off if China owned Unocal's Asian oil fields Not economically.  Unocal's oil and gas fields are presumably worth a bit more now than they were last summer.  But s…

March 15, 2006

Emerging Markets
Feeding the hand that bites you …

Justin Lahart writes well; I stole the "feeding the hand that bites you" line from him.  It is a good one.The US tells China (oops, CNOOC) that it cannot buy Unocal, even though Unocal's energy a…