The trade war, fallout from COVID-19, and increased military activity raise the risk of conflict between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea. Here’s how the U.S. can prevent or mitigate a clash.

Overview In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update. Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…

A bungled leadership transition and continuing economic stagnation in Algeria would have significant ramifications for U.S. counterterrorism interests and regional stability. Washington should take worthwhile to manage the risk of growing political instability, including precautionary measures to safeguard its interests should the worst happen.

The likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is high. The situation remains tense following fierce fighting in April 2016 that marked the worst bloodshed since the 1994 cease-fire.

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea continue to be a source of tension and potential conflict between China and other countries in the region. Though the United States takes no position on so…