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December 9, 2002

Bosnia and Herzegovina
Without Sustained EU-U.S. Action, Balkans Face Serious Social, Economic Instability, Warns New CFR Task Force, Balkans 2010

December 9, 2002— After a decade of extensive involvement and peacemaking in the Balkans, the United States and its allies are winding down their commitment to the region. At this critical juncture, …

May 6, 2003

Colombia
Council Launches Blue-Ribbon Commission to Craft Urgently Needed New Strategy for Colombia and the Andes

MAY 6, 2003 - The Center for Preventive Action, a Council on Foreign Relations conflict prevention initiative, has launched a new Commission to make concrete recommendations for mitigating deadly con…

November 19, 2004

Greenspan, part II

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan was careful to frame the risk created by rising US external debt for foreigners investing in the US (and in the process financing the US current account …

February 1, 2005

United States
One number to watch

My nomination for the single number that best captures the state of total’s world economy -- and a key risk going forward: The annual increase in central banks dollar reserves.It is not exactly a num…

May 22, 2005

Financial Markets
That strong renminbi (ok, that strong dollar)

The RMB has appreciated by about 7% against one of China’s major trading partners this year. Not the US, obviously. But that doesn’t mean that China is not exposed to moves in the dollar-euro, or t…

June 27, 2005

China
Martin Wolf makes sense (the Economist does not)

Martin Wolf’s FT column makes a number of crucial points:1) Asia has let undervalued exchange rates (and reserve accumulation) substitute for policies to promote domestic demand. The (growing) back…

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

October 13, 2004

United States
Oil and the US current account deficit

Oil above $50 a barrel is not good for the U.S. trade balance. Higher oil prices are a tax on US consumers, with the proceeds pocketed by oil exporters. If oil stays above $50 in November and Decem…

September 16, 2005

United States
The q2 current account deficit and global adjustment

Some days are marked by a surplus of good material.   The TIC data.  The second quarter current account data.  DeLong's magnus opus on what the great and good talked about on the margins of Jacks…

September 23, 2004

United States
The currency strategist at Morgan Stanley might want to talk to the chief economist at Morgan Stanley

Steve Johnson’s market insight column in Thursday’s Financial Times keys off Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist Stephen Jen’s argument that "As long as Asia insists on staying inside this dollar ar…