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Introduction
Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…
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April 4, 2005
United States
Ready for a $900 billion current account deficit?
$900 billion -- 7.2% of expected 2005 US GDP -- sounds extreme.But it is not entirely implausible.Assume oil stays at $55 a barrel or more for the remainder of the year. In that case, the higher oil…
July 19, 2005
Calculated Risk might want to start looking at the Netherlands
Calculated Risk has long argued that those wanting to peer into crystal ball and see the future of the US economy should look at Britain -- since Britain’s housing boom started before the US boom, an…
August 3, 2005
Monetary Policy
Are US companies to Bretton Woods 2 …
What gold was to Bretton Woods 1?In the post war Bretton Woods system, the dollar was - at least in principle - fully convertible into gold at a fixed rate. In practice, after a certain point in th…
December 31, 2005
United States
Some things I got (more or less) right
Unfortunately, this list is a bit shorter than the list of things I got wrong. Still, I think my crystal ball got a few things right.The rise in China's current account surplus. I - influenced by M…
September 20, 2006
Europe
Is it Europe’s turn to rise a housing bubble?
Both Morgan Stanley (at least Eric Chaney) and JP Morgan (in their latest global outlook) now recognize that Europe has emerged as an important engine of global demand growth. Indeed, the 2005 sur…
