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March 9, 2005

Monetary Policy
Reserve accumulation and the financing of the February US trade deficit

The dollar is under a bit of pressure today. The renminbi keeps falling too. The logic behind China’s tight peg to the dollar continues to elude me. The US dollar needs to depreciate as part of an…

May 12, 2005

United States
The sustainability of the current account deficit, once again

The market seems to have concluded that there is no need to put any pressure on the US to reduce its large external deficits. The dollar is up, at least against the euro. So is the renminbi for th…

July 12, 2005

United States
Don’t worry, be happy. Trade deficits do not matter so long as US household wealth is rising

Michael Mandel thinks I am making a big mistake, albeit a very, very common one - worrying about rising US external debt rather than celebrating rising US household wealth. Brad is making the very…

July 21, 2005

China shifts to a basket peg

But the change against the dollar is small.  Very small. Too small in my view to have much of an economic impact, in any way.  On trade flows.  Or on capital flows.  I would still bet on a furth…

July 26, 2005

China
Andy Xie gives no quarter

Xie to the market (and to the US): Take your 2% and stop telling China to revalue! Here is the difference between Xie and me, put simply. Xie thinks the US is trying to get China to "artificially"…