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March 9, 2005

Monetary Policy
Reserve accumulation and the financing of the February US trade deficit

The dollar is under a bit of pressure today. The renminbi keeps falling too. The logic behind China’s tight peg to the dollar continues to elude me. The US dollar needs to depreciate as part of an…

May 8, 2005

Capital Flows
Is the balance of financial power shifting?

The IMF has about $200 billion that it can lend out. About $75 b is currently lent out, mostly to Brazil, Turkey and Argentina (data link), leaving a bit over $100 billion that could be lent out in …

May 12, 2005

United States
The sustainability of the current account deficit, once again

The market seems to have concluded that there is no need to put any pressure on the US to reduce its large external deficits. The dollar is up, at least against the euro. So is the renminbi for th…

June 7, 2005

China
Creditors, Debtors, Partners, Strategic Rivals, Mallaby, Pesek

Sebastian Mallaby is tired of the US blaming China for its own problems -- and notes, correctly, that the US hasn’t been terribly responsive to international criticism of its own policies.But who doe…

July 12, 2005

United States
Don’t worry, be happy. Trade deficits do not matter so long as US household wealth is rising

Michael Mandel thinks I am making a big mistake, albeit a very, very common one - worrying about rising US external debt rather than celebrating rising US household wealth. Brad is making the very…