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December 8, 2004

Politics and Government
Damaged Snow

If you were John Snow, would you stay knowing that you were at best the President’s second choice?Do DC’s conservative activists really value tax cuts more than financial stability? And does their op…

June 21, 2005

Emerging Markets
Fantasy based opeds in the Wall Street Journal

The Wall Street Journal oped page clearly has discovered the joys of post-modernism. Facts are a social construction -- and inconvenient facts can be changed to fit your preferred narrative.That is…

September 11, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Is John Snow going to be among Katrina’s (political) casualties?

Mike Allen of Time (formerly Mike Allen of the Washington Post) seems to think so.  Or at least he is starting hear whispers.It seems that the White House's post-Katrina political strategy consis…

September 13, 2005

China
Time to change the way we think about the world

China's  August goods exports: $68 billion US July goods exports: $75 billion China should start exporting more goods than the USA in late 2005/ early 2006.  That is rather impressive.  It means…

October 18, 2005

Financial Markets
This week’s WSJ Econoblog is on Bretton Woods II

Mike Dooley of Deutsche Bank and UCSB makes the case that the new Bretton Woods system of fixed or heavily managed exchange rates on the "periphery" makes large (though not necessarily growing) curre…

October 28, 2005

United States
Yet more on Bernanke and the savings glut

Brad DeLong seems to have dug up what Dr. Bernanke thought about fiscal deficits before he discovered the global savings glut ...  namely, structural fiscal deficits tend to raise real interest rates…

December 30, 2005

Economics
Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

March 1, 2006

United States
Rising trade deficit financed by fast-growing poor countries watch

Consumption up.   Up by almost 1% in a month.   Consumption continues to grow faster than income.    Household savings, consequently, are down.    Michael Mandel, are you sure you want to argue that …

March 9, 2006

United States
Mike Mandel, Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger better be right (January trade data)

I sure hope that the US is exporting a lot of "intangibles" that don't show up in the trade data, and generating lots more intangible dark matter to offset all the external debt that the US is ta…

chart

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…