462 Results for:

November 6, 2004

Will Japan be able to stay on the sidelines for long?

Some facts: 1) In 2003, Japan increased its reserves by $200 billion, emerging Asia by $245 billion. The world as whole increased its reserves by $500 billion, so Asia accounted for most of the worl…

October 13, 2004

United States
Oil and the US current account deficit

Oil above $50 a barrel is not good for the U.S. trade balance. Higher oil prices are a tax on US consumers, with the proceeds pocketed by oil exporters. If oil stays above $50 in November and Decem…

December 16, 2004

Will Americans lose confidence in the dollar before foreign central banks …

There are two groups of investors that are massively overweight US assets: the world’s central banks, who still hold most of their reserves in dollars, and US domestic savers. US residents keep the …

December 18, 2004

2004 and 2005 current account deficits

Now that we have three of the four data points for 2004, it is worth trying to make a (well) informed guess about the end of the year current account deficit -- and to peer into 2005. This post of c…

May 24, 2005

Global
Reducing the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism: A Review of the Department of Energy's Global Threat Reduction Initiative

Testimony before the House Energy and Commerce Committee Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Mr. Chairman, I appreciate the opportunity to contribute to this important hearing on the D…

May 24, 2005

United States
Reducing the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism: A Review of the Department of Energy’s Global Threat Reduction Initiative

Testimony before the House Energy and Commerce CommitteeSubcommittee on Oversight and InvestigationsMr. Chairman, I appreciate the opportunity to contribute to this important hearing on the Departmen…

December 19, 2004

Plaza, or Louvre?

The 1985 Plaza accord sought to drive the dollar down; the 1987 Louvre sought to keep the dollar from falling further. There is growing talk of a new Plaza in the US -- though not in the circles tha…

January 2, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two Lives

The Fed has started to tighten, Greenspan said anyone who has not hedged their interest rate risk desires to lose money. Yet higher short-term rates have not led to higher long-term rates. In the j…

February 17, 2005

Can Germany learn something from France?

The good capitalists at Morgan Stanley seem to think so.Not all of old Europe has anemic domestic demand.French (and Spanish) domestic demand is doing just fine ... And new Europe (sort of) Italy, ru…

January 25, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
When will the bond market wake up

I know, I know, Morgan Stanley’s investors have spoken, and there is no bond market bubble. But the federal government certainly is swimming in a sea of red ink.I hope we have asked the Bank of Japan…