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September 23, 2004

United States
The currency strategist at Morgan Stanley might want to talk to the chief economist at Morgan Stanley

Steve Johnson’s market insight column in Thursday’s Financial Times keys off Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist Stephen Jen’s argument that "As long as Asia insists on staying inside this dollar ar…

November 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Will partial privatization of social security pass the global test?

This post is primarily about the implications of partial privatization of social security on the budget, not about its overall merits. For what it is worth, I personally think good old pay-as-you-go …

October 18, 2004

Financial Markets
Guess why Treasury did not issue the foreign exchange report?

The Treasury did not issue the foreign exchange report on Friday. Presumably, this is because it would have made the same set of arguments that last year’s report made, namely that China is not mani…

November 5, 2004

Financial Markets
Will Bush economic policy pass the global test?

The dollar is falling even with strong jobs numbers. That makes sense. Jobs = consumption = trade deficits, especially since bush = no tax cuts and rising spending (spending on the war and homeland…

November 28, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Where are the bond market vigilantes?

The typical price of irresponsible fiscal policy is higher long-term interest rates.U.S. fiscal policy has been, in my view, somewhat irresponsible, particularly given the lack of private savings in …

November 19, 2004

Greenspan in the news

Alan Greenspan’s comments on the US twin deficits are getting lots of play. Just saying that at some point foreign appetite for US assets is likely to diminish and won’t stay at its current strong p…

November 6, 2004

Politics and Government
Bush considering to a tax hike for most Americans?

Isn’t that what a revenue neutral flat tax or a national sales tax implies, particularly one that exempts investment income from any taxation? (as Cheney reportedly is pushing). In all honesty, it …

December 11, 2004

United States
The Global Test

My harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…

December 7, 2004

Capital Flows
Petroeuros

Monday’s FT had the story, drawing on this just released BIS report. It seems OPEC countries are holding fewer dollars and more euros in their external bank accounts. (Thanks to Marcel for alerting…

November 11, 2004

China

That alone ought to catch your attention. Whether talking about the US (needs Chinese financing), Latin America (needs Chinese demand for its commodities) or Europe (needs China to lets its exchange…