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October 6, 2004

Capital Flows
Cheney is wrong: $80 billion in debt relief if not equal to $80 billion in cash

Last night, Vice President Cheney claimed that US allies were contributing $80 billion to the war in Iraq by providing Iraq with debt relief. He compared this $80 billion in debt relief to the cash …

November 21, 2004

Capital Flows
The Times is overselling the impact of the Iraq debt deal

Getting agreement from the Paris Club creditors to write off 80% (in stages) of the $40 billion or so that Iraq owes them is no doubt a good thing -- not the least because it lets the US (and Iraq) p…

December 19, 2004

Plaza, or Louvre?

The 1985 Plaza accord sought to drive the dollar down; the 1987 Louvre sought to keep the dollar from falling further. There is growing talk of a new Plaza in the US -- though not in the circles tha…

December 26, 2004

Emerging Markets
Argentina in the boxing day New York Times

The IMF’s typical diagnosis of an emerging economies problem is "its mostly fiscal", or so the wonky saying goes. Larry Rohter of the New York Times makes the argument that Argentina’s post 2001 suc…

January 9, 2005

Financial Markets
The price of a European vacation

As readers of this blog no doubt know, the dollar rallied v. the euro last week. Not that most of America noticed. In much of America’s heartland, the dollar’s value does not make the financial new…

January 11, 2005

Emerging Markets
Should the IMF ever take a haircut?

Before Argentina’s default, Adam Lerrick thought the IMF (or the G-7) should offer to buy Argentina’s bonds at 60 cents on the dollar. Argentina is now offering bondholders an exchange that will be …

January 13, 2005

Emerging Markets
The Paris Club and Indonesia

An extremely esoteric topic: Paris Club comparability.When the Paris Club grants debt relief to a country like Iraq, it typically requires that the country seek "comparable" debt relief from its othe…

January 30, 2005

Financial Markets
Stephen Jen might want to rejigger his model

Apparently, Mr. Jen thinks the dollar -- despite the United States’ 6.2% of GDP current account deficit -- is significantly undervalued against all major currencies, and fairly valued against most As…

February 26, 2005

Emerging Markets
Has Argentina changed the rules of the sovereign debt game?

Argentina is on the verge of completing one of the largest sovereign debt restructurings in history. Argentina is seeking to restructure about $82 billion in bonds, plus $21 billion or so in past d…

June 19, 2005

China
Two articles on China. One good. One not so good.

Reuters has done a nice wrap up of what we know -- and more importantly what we don’t know -- about how China manages its reserves. They correctly note that the TIC data misses so much that it, alon…