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November 20, 2018

United States
The Fed Is Tightening More Than It Realizes

Before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $925 billion—mostly U.S. Treasury securities. After 59 months of asset purchases to push down longer-term interest ra…

The Fed Is Tightening More Than It Realizes

November 20, 2018

Kenya
Kenya's Data Privacy Bill Could Harm the Economy

Kenya's digital economy is booming, but proposed government legislation with data localization provisions could sap its growth. 

Tala app, an online financial micro lending platform is seen on a mobile phone in this photo illustration taken May 23, 2018.

November 19, 2018

China
China’s Naturally Triangular Trade… And What China’s Bilateral Trade Data is Telling us Right Now

The bilateral trade data is useful, even if Trump doesn’t always interpret it correctly…

China’s Naturally Triangular Trade… And What China’s Bilateral Trade Data is Telling us Right Now

November 9, 2018

China
Foreign Capital Has Been Propping Up China’s Currency. Here’s What Happens When It Leaves.

“I think China’s manipulating their currency, absolutely,” President Trump said back in August. Yet the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was, and has been, intervening to keep the RMB up, and not to…

Foreign Capital Has Been Propping Up China’s Currency. Here’s What Happens When It Leaves.

November 8, 2018

Kenya
How Kenya’s New Data Privacy Bill Could Hurt Its Economy

Kenya's digital economy is booming, but proposed government legislation with data localization provisions could sap its growth. 

Kenya FB Live

November 8, 2018

Monetary Policy
The Role of the U.S. Federal Reserve

The role of the Federal Reserve has transformed in the past decade, as it has deployed trillions of dollars to boost the U.S. economy while expanding its regulatory oversight of the nation’s financia…

Federal Reserve

November 13, 2018

Puerto Rico
Could Maria’s Legacy Be a New Debt Trap for Puerto Rico?

President Trump is right to worry that disaster aid will end up bailing out the holders of Puerto Rico's bonds, but there are better solutions to that particular problem than cutting off disaster aid…

Could Maria’s Legacy Be a New Debt Trap for Puerto Rico?

November 5, 2018

Iran
Iranian Oil Sanctions: Myths and Realities of U.S. Energy Independence

Renewed U.S. sanctions against Iranian oil exports kick in officially this week as part of the Trump administration’s decision to exit the Iranian nuclear deal. Estimations on how effective the sanct…

A gas flare on an oil production platform in the Soroush oil fields is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Persian Gulf, Iran, July 25, 2005.

November 2, 2018

United States
Stephen Kotkin’s “Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929–1941” Wins 2018 CFR Arthur Ross Book Award

November 2, 2018—Professor Stephen Kotkin has won the seventeenth annual Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Arthur Ross Book Award for Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929–1941 (Random House), the second…

October 30, 2018

China
Where Will the Yuan Go Next? China's Big Choice

China could widen the trading band around its currency in response to Trump's tariffs, but that wouldn't give it full policy autonomy. It would still need to defend the new edge of any trading band.

Where Will the Yuan Go Next?  China's Big Choice