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April 28, 2006

Why does China have a looser monetary policy than the United States?

We know why the global economy grew strongly in the first quarter.   Nothing changed.  Or rather, the basic pattern that has driven global growth for the past few years intensified.The US continued t…

April 30, 2006

Can the dollar block survive another bout of dollar weakness?

In case you haven't noticed, the dollar is now closer to 1.30 (v. the euro) than 1.20 - or even 1.15.  Carry is no longer king.   There is talk of a "regime change" in the fx market.  Or at least an …

May 2, 2006

Financial Markets
And the money keeps rolling in …

To Russia. In 1998, Russia was very short on cash.  It went to the IMF and got a $15 billion credit line.  When it didn’t hold up its end of the bargain – taking steps to collect a bit of revenue – t…

May 27, 2006

Emerging Markets
Have emerging markets changed more than the markets?

Is the lesson of the most recent bout of turmoil in the emerging world “emerging market economies have changed, but the markets have not”?How have emerging economies changed since 1997, the last time…

June 25, 2006

Financial Markets
Only some emerging market currencies have corrected this year.

Emerging market economies with overvalued currencies now – generally speaking –have less overvalued currencies.   The Turkish lira was too strong at the beginning of the year.  Turkey’s current accou…