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March 27, 2005

United States
The financing of the US current account deficit

2004 Current account deficit: $666 billion2004 Net FDI outflow: $133 billion2004 Net portfolio equity outflow: $63 billion (TIC data); $37 billion (BEA) data. The difference seems to stem from diffe…

May 1, 2005

China
Will China get hit by the cover jinx?

It is a bit hard to start shorting the renminbi (RMB/ the Chinese currency) just because China has now made its appearance on the cover of Newsweek. It is hard to short something that has yet to be …

May 22, 2005

Financial Markets
That strong renminbi (ok, that strong dollar)

The RMB has appreciated by about 7% against one of China’s major trading partners this year. Not the US, obviously. But that doesn’t mean that China is not exposed to moves in the dollar-euro, or t…

June 1, 2005

United States
Is the US sufficiently geared up?

Deep Throat is no longer Washington’s best kept secret, the ten-year Treasury note yields less than 4% and Stephen Roach is a (reluctant) bond bull. The currency of a country with a 6.5% of GDP cur…

June 3, 2005

Economics
If Roach says 3.5% and Gross says 3%, someone else has to say 2.5%

Roach and Gross could not stay among the most bullish on bonds for very long. From Marc Gilbert’s column today.Gabe Borenstein, managing director of global investments at Investec Holdings Ltd. in N…