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November 6, 2004

Politics and Government
Bush considering to a tax hike for most Americans?

Isn’t that what a revenue neutral flat tax or a national sales tax implies, particularly one that exempts investment income from any taxation? (as Cheney reportedly is pushing). In all honesty, it …

February 20, 2005

Capital Flows
Banker? Strategic competitor? Both?

The US borrows about 1/5 of all the money the federal government spends, and most of the borrowed money comes from abroad: foreign purchases of Treasuries in 2004 exceeded the (net) issuance of Treas…

February 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Oil, and a bit of geopolitics

On Thursday, the Financial Times, the New York Times and Tom Friedman all weighed in on Asian reserve diversification. Paul Blustein of the Washington Post has an A1 story today on another of my comm…

April 11, 2005

United States
Skating on incredibly thin ice

Altogether, the circumstances seem to be as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness o…

May 1, 2005

China
Will China get hit by the cover jinx?

It is a bit hard to start shorting the renminbi (RMB/ the Chinese currency) just because China has now made its appearance on the cover of Newsweek. It is hard to short something that has yet to be …