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Asia Unbound

CFR fellows and other experts assess the latest issues emerging in Asia today.

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U.S. President Donald Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hold up trade deal documents during a bilateral meeting at the 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on October 26, 2025.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hold up trade deal documents during a bilateral meeting at the 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on October 26, 2025. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

The White House Transformed Asia in 2025: Expect Much More in 2026

In 2025, the second administration of U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically changed the trajectory of U.S. engagement with Asia through its tariff-heavy approach, a trend that seems set to continue in the year ahead. 

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Japan
Remembering Tohoku
Ayumi Teraoka is research associate for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Many people across Japan observed a moment of silence at 2:46 P.M. on March 11, 2016—five years after the fourth biggest earthquake in history struck Japan’s Northeast, bringing about the “triple disaster” that included an earthquake, a tsunami, and the nuclear plant meltdown in Fukushima. The government-sponsored memorial ceremony in Tokyo was attended by Emperor Akihito, Empress Michiko, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the chairmen of both Houses of the Parliament, the Supreme Court Chief Justice, and families of the victims. Emperor Akihito and Prime Minister Abe both stressed the importance of passing the lessons of the tragedy to future Japanese generations and the international community. The day has also become a moment for the Japanese to reflect upon the international support Japan has received in response to the devastating disaster. In particular, the United States has stood side-by-side with Japan, providing significant military and civilian support for disaster response and the reconstruction of the Tohoku region. Commander of U.S. Forces, Japan Lieutenant General John Dolan, released a statement today saying that, “the unprecedented U.S. and Japanese recovery operation was carried out in the spirit of friendship that animates our alliance.” Furthermore, American donations totaled $746.1 million, making the United States the largest donor. The Embassy of Japan in the United States also released a video to thank the United States for its support. It is also important to note, however, that reconstruction of the devastated region is far from finished. On the fifth anniversary of the tragedy, Sheila Smith, CFR senior fellow for Japan studies, provided her analysis on the developments and implications of the triple disaster. Read here
United States
Is Myanmar the Model for Cuba’s Reforms?
Over the past six months, the Obama White House has rapidly bolstered diplomatic and economic ties with Cuba. Last month, Washington and Havana signed a deal restoring commercial flights between the two countries for first time in over fifty years; the deal, one of many agreements recently reached, came at the same time as Washington allowed a U.S. factory to set up in Cuba. The outreach to the island is an attempt, according to deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes, to ensure that the U.S.-Cuba rapprochement is nearly irreversible by the time that Obama leaves office. To further cement ties, Obama will visit Cuba later this month—making him the first U.S. president to do so since Calvin Coolidge. Recently, White House officials also have begun mentioning a more specific template for this bilateral rapprochement, and for how Cuba might open up its economy and its political system: Myanmar. Since the first days of Obama’s first term, administration officials placed a priority on restoring closer U.S. ties with Myanmar. Myanmar was, at the time, isolated from the United States and most other democracies by decades of junta rule, destructive economic policies, and sanctions imposed after massive rights abuses by Myanmar’s leaders. The Obama administration believed that sanctions had failed to change the course of Myanmar politics, and that America’s inattention to the Southeast Asian country was making Myanmar a virtual Chinese client state. To reverse U.S. policy toward Myanmar, over the past seven years, the White House has indeed relaxed sanctions on the country, appointed ambassadorial level representation to Myanmar (the United States had an embassy in Myanmar, but it had been led by a charge d’affaires), launched new aid programs in Myanmar, and even considered restoring military ties down the road. The Obama administration sees Myanmar as a success story, and one in which the United States played a major role in the transition. Now, it apparently sees U.S.-Myanmar relations as a model as well. As Hillary Clinton notes in her memoir Hard Choices, the administration believes that it played a central role in pushing the Myanmar generals to move toward elections, and that the rapprochement with Myanmar was an example of U.S. diplomacy and soft power at its finest. A recent Washington Post article effectively summarized administration views on U.S.-Myanmar relations and how they could be a model for relations with Cuba. “There are important similarities” between the White House’s approach to Cuba and its approach toward Myanmar, the Post reported. U.S. deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes told the Post that in both cases the White House was breaking from years of isolating these nations, and that the administration would set the foundations for a new relationship to be built over generations. For more on how the U.S.-Myanmar relationship could---or could not---be a model for ties with Cuba, read my new article on World Politics Review.
China
Is China Finally Fed Up With Kim Jong-un’s North Korea?
Theresa Lou is a research associate for the International Institutions and Global Governance program at the Council on Foreign Relations.  This article originally appeared in The Diplomat. What explains Beijing’s acquiescence to unprecedented sanctions at the UN Security Council? In response to North Korea’s latest nuclear test and ballistic missile launch, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2270 (UNSCR 2270), which contains some of the strongest sanctions ever adopted against Pyongyang. We have seen this play out before: North Korea provokes the international community with nuclear or missile tests, global leaders condemn the North’s brazen behavior, and the UNSC tightens sanctions. Years or months later, the tests resume. Repeat. UNSCR 2270 is particularly significant, however, given that China, North Korea’s sole ally, worked with the United States to craft the tough sanctions, following nearly two months of negotiations.  Frosty China-North Korea relations, Beijing’s reduced tolerance, and change in North Korea’s weapons capability have all likely contributed to China’s recalibration. Should the world expect these sanctions to push Kim Jong-un towards denuclearization? No, but Beijing’s acceptance of the strict sanctions is nonetheless a significant step. Importantly, China’s tougher stance against Pyongyang increases the likelihood of future U.S.-China cooperation in taking measures to reign in the Kim regime. Beijing’s policy shift can first be explained by the deteriorating relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang. By executing his uncle Jang Song-Thaek—a fixture of Pyongyang elite—just two years after assuming power, Kim cut off China’s primary channel to the North Korean leadership. This brash act of avunculicide effectively silenced senior figures in Pyongyang who would have advocated for closer relations with Beijing, thereby reducing the influence China previously wielded. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented decision to meet South Korean President Park Geun-hye in Seoul without having first visited Pyongyang further exemplified Xi’s displeasure with Kim. As Beijing’s control of North Korea wanes, so too does its patience. Kim has repeatedly embarrassed China in the short amount of time he’s been in power. In October 2015, Beijing reportedly received North Korean assurances from Pyongyang that it would cease nuclear testing. Hardly two months had passed and Pyongyang tested an alleged hydrogen bomb roughly 50 miles from China’s border six days into the New Year. Instead of heeding Beijing’s calls of restraint in November 2012, Kim thumbed his nose at the Chinese leadership and launched a ballistic missile anyway. The same thing happened in February 2016.  When Chinese diplomat Wu Dawei urged Kim not to conduct another missile test, the young leader ordered the launch a day earlier than planned so that it fell on the eve of Chinese New Year instead. China has been cleaning up after North Korea for decades, but past North Korean leaders have not blatantly flouted Beijing’s warnings when in possession of as little political capital as Kim Jong-un. It seems the young leader is close to exhausting what little capital he has remaining. Though the two countries used to be close, support for North Korea among the Chinese public has waned. Each time Pyongyang lashes out, China sustains international pressure to take decisive action. The Chinese Communist Party seems increasingly split on whether Pyongyang is an asset or a liability, and has (uncharacteristically) allowed increased intraparty debate on China’s North Korea policy. Additionally, North Korean provocations have inspired the United States and South Korea to take unprecedented deterrent action. Discussions between Seoul and Washington regarding the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery to South Korea has drawn Chinese ire; Beijing argues that such a deployment would jeopardize its national security interests. China has long been wary of foreign involvement in the Asia-Pacific, and additional North Korean provocations will only increase U.S. attention in the area. Finally, the Chinese are likely realizing the dangers of allowing North Korea to further advance its weapons technology. Though the specifics of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program remain unclear, the technology has progressed at a considerable pace given the sanctions imposed upon the regime. Chinese concerns of a nuclear North Korea are further amplified given Kim’s record as a mercurial, untrustworthy ‘frenemy’ who has not heeded China’s calls for restraint. To be sure, there is good reason to question Beijing’s sincerity in implementing these new sanctions. Despite having voted in favor of each of the four previous resolutions, China’s track record on sanctions enforcement against North Korea has been spotty. Beijing’s actions underscore a fundamental difference between it and Washington over the intended goal of sanctions. Whereas the United States imposes harsh sanctions to curb North Korea’s nuclear program, Beijing aims to push Pyongyang back to the negotiating table, preferably through the long-defunct Six-Party Talks. China regards maintaining peace and stability on the Korean peninsula as its primary interest. It fears that crippling sanctions would destabilize the Kim regime and either exacerbate tensions or worse: cause the regime to collapse, sending millions of refugees fleeing across Chinese borders. Even if these new sanctions were fully enforced by all United Nations member states, they would likely fail to push Pyongyang toward denuclearization. North Korea’s economy may tumble and Kim might find it increasingly difficult to continue financing his weapons program, but these sanctions are not crippling. China would not have agreed if it believed UNSCR 2270 was enough to destabilize North Korea. For example, the resolution does not address Chinese crude oil exports to North Korea or the trading of goods at their mutual border. These allowances are Beijing’s way of ensuring that these sanctions do not trigger a humanitarian crisis and state collapse. Despite these causes for pessimism about the effectiveness of UNSCR 2270’s implementation and effectiveness, the United States should build upon the momentum of China’s significant step and lay the groundwork for more decisive cooperation in the future. It would be a mistake to assume the sanctions will have a significant impact on Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Rather, the success of the resolution must be assessed by whether Beijing stands by its commitments and enforces the sanctions in earnest. China’s level of follow-through will allow the United States to gauge Beijing’s readiness to engage discussions for longer-term solutions for the North Korean question. Beijing seems to be slowly realizing that the devil it knows is not better than the alternative. The United States should seize this opportunity to further engage China and discuss mutually acceptable outcomes for the Korean peninsula. It is unlikely that Beijing will fully trust Washington’s intentions in the region, but open communication is an essential step toward getting China to realign its priorities with those of Washington. However, the United States should refrain from action that the Chinese may perceive as further U.S. encirclement. THAAD deployment, for example, may already be pushing Beijing’s tolerance limits. If these trends continue, China could come to accept that maintaining the peace and stability of the region cannot be divorced from efforts to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.
  • China
    A Hard Landing for Chinese "Parachute Kids"?
    Pei-Yu Wei is an intern for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. On February 17, 2016, three Chinese “parachute kids” were sentenced to prison after bullying their classmate last March in Rowland Heights, California. Yunyao “Helen” Zhai, Xinlei “John” Zhang, and Yuhan “Coco” Yang, were part of a group of twelve who kidnapped and assaulted a classmate over unsettled restaurant bills and arguments over a boy. After luring the victim to meet with them, the bullies took her to a park where they repeatedly beat her, kicked her with high-heels, and burned her with cigarette butts. Zhai, Zhang, and Yang were arrested, while the rest of the group fled, some reportedly back to China. Initially charged with torture, kidnapping, and assault, all three of the defendants plead no contest to the kidnapping and assault charges. In return, the torture charge was dropped. Zhai, Yang, and Zhang were sentenced to thirteen, ten, and six years, respectively, and will be immediately deported after completing their terms. The high schoolers’ actions sparked a wide debate in China, which has been dominated by the issue of the lack of parental supervision for “parachute kids,” young international students who come to the United States to study without their families. Online discussions have also identified deeper legal and cultural differences, which may have contributed to the impunity with which the students carried out the attack, and the ways that their parents later attempted to smooth over the incident. In fact, such gaps in understanding have become more apparent among Chinese students studying in the United States and their families. With its large population and growing middle class, China has sent an increasing number of “parachute kids” in recent years, especially in the fifteen-nineteen year age group. As of 2013, the number of Chinese students attending U.S. high schools exceeded 23,000. Many students seek to escape the ultra-competitive national collegiate examination in China, to receive a more well-rounded and flexible education, or to get a leg-up in applying to American colleges. While most “parachute kids” have gone on to succeed, many have encountered challenges. At a young age, the students face culture shocks, language barriers, and loneliness. Although many of the students live with host families, the hosts often only provide room and board, and students are left isolated. These factors, coupled with the daunting problem of handling one’s own free time and copious amounts of spending money sent by guilty parents, often cause children to withdraw from classmates and teachers, or to lash out. At the same time, bullying incidents similar to or more severe than that in Rowland Heights have become increasingly common in China itself. In 2014, forty-three extreme bullying cases were exposed by the Chinese media. The number of cases reached twenty-six in the first three months of 2015. In June 2015, Huang Tanghong, a senior in Fujian province, was beaten so badly that he was hospitalized for a ruptured spleen. While the case drew widespread attention in China and the authorities took the bullies into custody, the perpetrators were ultimately released when their parents paid Huang’s family approximately $33,000 in compensation. Huang’s plight was not an isolated case. In fact, incidents of extreme bullying are often settled out-of-court through monetary compensation and interventions from educational authorities. Expulsions are rare, let alone jail time. Under China’s current Child Protection Law, those between the ages of fourteen and sixteen can only be subject to criminal punishment for committing heinous crimes, namely rape and murder. All these factors can lead to significant cultural misunderstandings. The defendants in the Rowland Heights case asked the case’s detective, “What’s the big deal? It happens in China all the time.” The father of one of the defendants also attempted to bribe the victim to “settle” the matter. He was later arrested. Another defendant’s father told Xinhua that his knowledge of the United States was like a “blank sheet of paper” and that he didn’t understand legal and cultural differences between the two countries. Netizens in China followed the case avidly, commenting on the severity of the consequences the students face and reflecting on the lack of institutional and legal mechanisms to respond to and prevent bullying in China. Most are pleased with the outcome. One commentator noted, “This group ignores the laws, and when they are faced with dire consequences they play innocent and say they don’t understand U.S. laws. They deserve to be imprisoned. When I read the report I felt extremely happy and that justice has been served. Actually, this kind of thing happens in China too, but the ways that they are dealt with make people feel unsatisfied.” Another speculated that had the incident happened in China, the defenders might not have faced the consequences because of their family backgrounds, writing, “Apparently one of the assailants’ mother is the leader of a tobacco company, and his father heads up a Shanghai police department. Please imagine: if this torture case had happened in China, what would happen?” Some also highlighted the differences in norms between the two nations. One commented, “A parent [of the offenders] who’s as helpful as a god even attempted bribery and got arrested…. But when things happen and the parents’ first thought is to use money to ‘settle,’ then we can see how deeply rooted this kind of thought is in China.” While this extreme bullying case drew widespread attention, these students were not alone in their misperception of regulations and laws in the United States. University of Iowa student, Hanxiang Ni, was expelled in February 2016 and had his student visa revoked after posting online, “If I do not get good grades after studying so hard, I will make professors experience the fear of Gang Lu” just days after he received permits to obtain and carry a gun.  Lu was a Chinese doctoral student at the same university who fatally shot four people and himself in 1991. On Weibo, Ni claimed that his message was meant as a joke that “any normal person would understand as such,” and that he “wrote in Chinese deliberately” because he “didn’t want any misunderstandings to arise.” Both Ni and his father thought the school was overreacting, with the latter saying they are seeking legal options. Similarly, students who pay consultants to fill out their U.S. college applications, ghostwrite their essays, and compose teachers’ recommendation letters are sometimes unaware that this could be considered fraudulent or get them expelled. As an increasing number of young Chinese students arrive in the United States to study, the need for understanding cultural and legal differences between the two societies must be addressed. Providing students with a basic education on the laws of the United States, and helping them understand what kinds of behaviors are unacceptable is a good place to start. Currently, a number of colleges in the United States include talks from law enforcement officials in their orientation programs. Furthermore, resources detailing things such as when to call the police, regulations on alcohol and drugs, and driving policies can be found on school websites. These can be easily extended to cover topics that students may not have encountered before, such as firearms, and actions that may result in more severe consequences, such as bullying or posting threats as “jokes” on the internet. It is also crucial for Chinese parents and students to familiarize themselves with, if not at least have a cursory understanding of, the law. After all, the bulk of the responsibility to abide by the law rests with the students and their families. Parents must consider whether their kids will be able to responsibly use their sudden freedom. As all three of the defendants in this case noted, too much freedom and no parental supervision can be a “formula for disaster.”
  • Thailand
    Thanat Khoman and the Fraying of the U.S.-Thailand Alliance
    Last week, Thanat Khoman, the longtime politician and former foreign minister of Thailand, died of natural causes in Bangkok. He was 102, and one of the last surviving leaders who played a central role in the Indochina Wars of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. Thanat was foreign minister between 1959 and 1971, when the spread of communism through Indochina---communist forces had nearly encircled Luang Prabang during the First Indochina War, and communist forces obviously were making gains in Laos and South Vietnam during Thanat’s tenure---terrified the conservative Thai military regime. Thailand supposedly prided itself on neutrality and working with all nations, a foundation of Thai diplomacy for centuries, yet it already had been moving closer toward a security partnership with the United States even before Thanat’s tenure as foreign minister. In March 1962, Thanat and U.S. Secretary of State Dean Rusk signed a bilateral communiqué in which Washington promised to come to Thailand’s aid if it faced aggression by neighboring nations. The communiqué built upon an already-close U.S.-Thai relationship that had been forged in the 19th century, with the bilateral Treaty of Amity and Commerce in 1833. The communiqué solidified Thailand’s role as a crucial U.S. ally. During the Vietnam War years that followed the communiqué, the United States would dramatically build up Thailand’s armed forces, and Thai troops would become deeply involved in the wars in Laos and South Vietnam. (For an excellent, English-language account of Thai soldiers in the Vietnam War, see Richard Ruth’s In Buddha’s Company: Thai Soldiers in the Vietnam War). In addition to their contributions in Vietnam, Thai troops helped a conservative Laotian general defeat a neutralist/leftist force in Laos in civil conflict in Vientiane in 1960. In later years, Thai troops repeatedly reinforced Hmong irregulars in Laos when the army of Hmong and other hill tribes, led by Vang Pao, faced disaster in Laos’ highlands. Overall, the United States lavished security and economic assistance on Thailand between the mid-1950s and the mid-1970s, rapidly modernizing the kingdom’s physical infrastructure. Washington gained as well. The U.S. Air Force based much of its Indochina campaigns in Thailand, and bases in Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani swelled into virtual mini-Americas in the midst of the drought-ridden, baking-hot Thai Northeast. (I am in the final stages of editing my next book, which will examine the secret war in Laos during the Vietnam War, and how the Laos war turned the CIA into a military organization. Many of the key actors involved in the U.S. effort in Laos were based at the CIA’s station on the Udon Thani facility.) At the time of the Thanat-Rusk communiqué, the U.S-Thailand alliance was built on real mutual needs. Although, in retrospect, the communist threat to Thailand was limited---the actual Communist Party of Thailand never gained significant traction in the kingdom, for one---it seemed reasonable to believe that Thailand might be threatened by the political upheaval in Southeast Asia. And Thai leaders needed U.S. protection, U.S. diplomatic support despite the Thai generals’ abuses, and massive U.S. economic and security aid. The United States needed a stable and friendly Thailand for its bases, its leadership among non-communist countries in Asia, its example of economic development via free market economics, and its ability to make the defense of South Vietnam seem, at least superficially, like a multinational endeavor. Later in his career, Thanat became less supportive of the U.S.-Thailand relationship he had helped forge. He played a significant role in the founding of ASEAN, which he saw as an organization that could help Asians solve their own problems. He later advocated closer Thai relations with China, as the Vietnam War wound down in the 1970s, in part to reduce Bangkok’s dependence on Washington. By the 1980s, a time when he was still deeply involved in Thai politics, Thanat had become publicly critical of Thailand’s dependence on the United States for its security. But the reality is that, today, even before the May 2014 coup in Thailand, the bilateral relationship is significantly diminished---a far cry from what it was in Thanat’s day. The hard truth is that the United States needs much less from Thailand than it did, putting the Thais in a weaker position in the relationship, and making it easier for U.S. governments to criticize Thai leaders for rights abuses. The United States no longer relies on Thailand as a security partner the way it once did; there is no major war in Southeast Asia, and the United States has built close partnerships with Vietnam and Singapore, partnerships that are taking the place of many aspects of the U.S.-Thai security relationship. The alliance is frayed and weaker, and probably never will recover its vitality.