from Follow the Money

Muito Forte

July 7, 2009

Blog Post

This is Mark Dow here. Brad’s still on vacation.

Here’s a quick chart  for anyone questioning the conditional convergence growth hypothesis in emerging markets. In English, the hypothesis loosely posits that you can’t commit suicide jumping out of the basement window (ie. those who start from a much lower base will tend to grow faster until thier growth rate converges with that of more developed countries.)

This chart was brought to my attention by Marcio Ferreira, one of my colleagues at Pharo.

The red line is Brazilian vehicle sales going back to 2001. The white line is the vehicle sales in the US. The two time series are normalized to Dec 2001 so we can see the contrast in growth rates. It paints a powerful picture.

Brazilian vehicle sales vs US vehicle sales, 2001-2009, normalized