The latest episode of The President’s Inbox is live! This week, Jim sat down with Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council. They discussed Tom’s new book Getting Russia Right, which analyzes the state of the U.S.-Russia relationship and its future.

Here are three highlights from their conversation:

1.) The United States misjudged Russia’s ambitions after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Tom argued that from the start “the United States had a number of illusions about what was possible with Russia.” The United States assumed that Russia would be willing be a “junior partner” in a U.S.-dominated international system. That was never the case. Instead, Russia wanted to rebuild its power. The way Tom put it, Russia has “always valued what we would call strategic autonomy.” Jim noted that historians “are going to argue about how to allocate the blame” for the deterioration of the U.S.-Russian relations for decades.

2.) The U.S.-Russia relationship is unlikely to improve in the near term. U.S.-Russian relations had been deteriorating since the end of the George W. Bush administration. Then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year broke the relationship. Tom doesn’t see the United States and Russia improving relations until the war ends and Putin is no longer leading Russia.

3.) Achieving U.S. interests requires the United States to have a working relationship with Russia. Tom argued that the United States needs to recognize that Russia will continue to be a “significant power” on the global stage for decades to come, whether Americans like it or not. For that reason, Washington should seek to find ways to move away from “adversarial” relations with Russia and toward a “constructive rivalry.”  The problem is, it will be hard to get from here to there as long as Putin remains in power. Jim acknowledged that “it doesn’t appear as long as President Putin is in charge that he’s interested in, dare I say it, a reset in U.S.-Russian relations.” 

If you’re looking to read more of Tom’s analysis of Russia, check out his In Brief for the Council titled “How Firm Is Vladimir Putin’s Grip on Power?”