The Nigeria security services regularly announce successes against Boko Haram. Earlier in April, they announced the arrest of Khalid al-Barnawi, a leader of Ansaru—a Boko Haram splinter—and have clai…

he latest Boko Haram kidnapping of female students sheds some light on the terrorist group’s current operational capacity and also highlights President Muhammadu Buhari’s direct involvement.

For eight years now, we have been tracking the evolution of political violence in Nigeria with the Nigeria Security Tracker (NST). While Boko Haram has always been a focus, we have collected data pertaining to police and military violence, and sectarian conflict. We have also recorded violent crime and kidnapping. Nevertheless, we are most frequently asked about the conflict in northeastern Nigeria.

The number of Boko Haram fighters, adherents, and supporters is unknown. Speculation ranges from 5,000 to 50,000 “supporters.” The movement continues to be able to recruit, despite sustaining the hig…