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February 2, 2015

Monetary Policy
Employment Data Suggest Fed Could Be "Patient" Until 2016—or Later

In its last two statements, the FOMC has said that it “expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term”—2 percent being its target rate. What would it take to move it the…

Employment Data Suggest Fed Could Be "Patient" Until 2016—or Later

September 15, 2014

Monetary Policy
A Dovish Market Has History on Its Side in Tuning Out the Fed

Market expectations for Fed policy have been decidedly more dovish than the Fed itself, a conundrum that is concerning San Francisco Fed economists.  As the Fed debates its rate-liftoff forward gu…

A Dovish Market Has History on Its Side in Tuning Out the Fed

November 3, 2014

Europe and Eurasia
The ECB Fails to Stress Banks Over the One Critical Variable It Controls: Inflation

Relentlessly falling inflation is bad news for Eurozone banks.  It increases the real (inflation-adjusted) value of borrower debt and the real cost of servicing that debt.  It causes loan defaults…

The ECB Fails to Stress Banks Over the One Critical Variable It Controls: Inflation

November 6, 2013

Europe and Eurasia
ECB Rate Cut a No-Brainer; Also, for Many, a No-Gainer

Back in April, we showed that the eurozone countries most in need of lower corporate borrowing rates benefited only marginally from ECB rate cuts. Today’s Geo-Graphic shows that little has changed…

ECB Rate Cut a No-Brainer; Also, for Many, a No-Gainer

November 20, 2014

Europe and Eurasia
Bank Valuations Tank as ECB Flubs Its Stress Test

Low market valuations (i.e., price to book ratios) for euro area banks reflect market concerns over their capital cushions, opined the Bank of England just prior to last-year’s launch of the ECB s…

Bank Valuations Tank as ECB Flubs Its Stress Test