Estimating and translating the probability of an event for decision-makers is among the most difficult challenges in government and the private sector. The person making the estimate must be able to …

The perpetrators of the attacks this weekend in Egypt and in Turkey murdered people because that is what they do.

This article was originally published in the Cipher Brief on Thursday, April 14, 2016.

As 2020 comes to a close, here are ten positive stories on the foreign policy front that happened in the past year. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's vision for an executive presidency promises to continue his country's slide toward authoritarianism.