Introduction As major powers increasingly rely on digital networks for critical services, the number of plausible network attacks, accidents, or failures that could trigger or exacerbate an intern…

Overview In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update. Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…

Overview In October 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Ukraine. Read the update. Ukraine continues to face internal political turmoil and tense rela…

Overview In June 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Libya. Read the update. Multiple threats to Libya's stability and public order could emerge if t…

Introduction Although the likelihood of a full-blown war between Russia and Georgia is low, one cannot rule out renewed confrontation between the two countries in the next twelve to eighteen month…