April 22, 2013
Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…
January 9, 2013
Kenya is at risk of repeating the violence that marred its 2007 presidential election, during which 1,133 died and nearly 600,000 were displaced from their homes. Political order in K…
September 6, 2012
In March 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Venezuela. Read the update.
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant po…
May 18, 2011
Crisis in the Congo describes the Democratic Republic of the Congo's near-term vulnerability to convulsive electoral violence and renewed rebellion on its periphery. In this Contingency P…
September 21, 2010
In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update.
Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…