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November 1, 2005

China
Balance of payments math for the Economist (and some thoughts on Chinese banks)

The Economist - byline Bejing, Hong Kong, Shanghai.The quote: "No country can sustainably invest more than it saves ..."As most of you know, I generally agree with that sentiment, though it is certai…

February 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
The central bank (and oil fund) bid

I am constantly amazed by the concern well paid Wall Street economists display for poor Chinese peasants.    China, you see, cannot revalue the RMB without devastating rural China.  A revalued RMB wo…

February 13, 2006

Monetary Policy
It is back. Bretton Woods 2 (central bank financing of the US)

Some would say it never really went away.Emerging market economies did not stop accumulating reserves in 2005.  Best I can tell, adjusting for valuation effects and including all the foreign assets o…

February 23, 2006

United States
Selling off pieces of yourself (or not)

The 2006 US current account deficit looks to be a bit under $1 trillion.  $1 trillion sounds big, but remember, the annualized fourth quarter current account deficit will almost certainly be close to…

May 25, 2006

United States
You know, there are safe havens that do not have a current account deficit of $1 trillion …

Incidentally, I am not the only one who thinks that the US current account deficit is heading toward a trillion.   The OECD now forecasts $965b current account deficit in 2006 (7.2% of GDP), and $107…