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February 8, 2005

Chairman Greenspan: Do Not Worry, Be Happy

The Chairman gave policy makers a green light not to worry about the US current account deficit: the dollar’s existing fall will lead the deficit to turn around. The Chairman’s remarks also seem to …

March 29, 2005

United States
Too big to behave rashly

According to Andrew Samwick, the world’s central banks are too big to behave rashly. As he puts it: "We’re too big an economy, and our creditors’ portfolio holdings are simply too large for them to …

September 18, 2005

United States
Synthetic CDOs, China and Systemic Risk

I suspect the stock of outstanding synthetic credit derivatives -- $ 1500 b in synthetic CDOs in 2004 v. $300 b or so in 2001, according to Mark Whitehouse of the Wall Street Journal -- is the only t…

January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

September 4, 2005

Economics
Financial storm gathering?

Andrew Lo of MIT apparently thinks so.  His work provided the basis for this New York Times article by Mark Giben, an article that probably will attract less attention today than it would in more tra…

October 17, 2005

China
The US government has no idea what China intends to do with its exchange rate …

This Financial Times articles by Andrew Balls and Richard McGregor is worth reading.  It makes two key points:1. China did not give the US any hints what it plans to do next with its currency next.  …

October 24, 2005

China
No one forced China to import US monetary policy: Commentary on yesterday’s China commentary

Andrew Browne did something somewhat unusual in Monday's Wall Street Journal (see p. A2 of the print edition, unfortunately, I have not been able to find the link). He wrote about China, and got …

April 28, 2006

Why does China have a looser monetary policy than the United States?

We know why the global economy grew strongly in the first quarter.   Nothing changed.  Or rather, the basic pattern that has driven global growth for the past few years intensified.The US continued t…

July 15, 2006

Capital Flows
A new club of creditors …

Andrew Rozanov – a senior manager in the official institutions group of State Street Global Advisors – thinks America’s creditors in Asia and the oil producing world should create a club (sort of lik…

September 21, 2006

China
Why China’s $1 trillion in reserves are unlikely to be of much use in a banking crisis

It is rather hard to read Andrew Browne’s report of the building boom in Zhengzhou in last week’s Wall Street Journal --- or for that matter many other accounts of China’s current investment boom – a…