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January 8, 2005

Has the broad dollar fallen enough

A standard rule of thumb, mentioned by Paul Blustein in his excellent look at the impact of a falling dollar on US trade last week, is that a 10% fall in the broad dollar leads to a $100 billion fall…

November 28, 2005

China
China still pegs to the dollar …

And it intervenes in a big way in both the spot and the forward market.  But it doesn't manipulate its currency.  At least not technically.   The US Treasury - in a widely telegraphed move - decided …

January 11, 2006

China
China’s December trade

The most impressive part of China's most recent trade data:  18% y/y growth in December exports.  That pushed China's monthly exports up to $75.4 billion, and laid the basis for a $11 billion monthly…

March 23, 2007

Emerging Markets
Chindia (or maybe not)

The similarities between China and India have seized many (see Martin Wolf's column and the resulting discussion).   Both China and India have enormous populations -- and enormous scope to increase t…

July 24, 2007

Monetary Policy
Voldemort’s invisibility cloak

There is something about SAFE -- maybe the fact that its full name, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, seems to come straight from the Ministry of (Bureaucratic) Magic --  that seems to in…