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September 20, 1999

Global
Safeguarding Proseperity in a Global Financial System: The Future Financial Architecture Report of an Independent Task Force

September 20, 1999 — The international community will not make real headway in crisis prevention if private creditors—and particularly large commercial banks—can escape from bad loans to emerging eco…

January 26, 2005

Financial Markets
China reads the Economist. Is the Renminbi undervalued?

While China’s delegation to Davos seems a bit less than enamored with the dollar, the People’s Bank of China seems have read last week’s Economist, and concluded that there is no need to change the …

December 6, 2004

Financial Markets
Surprise, Surprise: the Treasury waited til December to clear China of currency manipulation

It looks like John Snow did Andy Card one last favor before stepping aside: late on Friday, the Treasury quietly issued the annual foreign currency report. To no one’s surprise, the report declared …

September 29, 2005

Financial Markets
Has the IMF been asleep at the wheel, and ignored surveillance of exchange rates?

Tim Adams - the new US Treasury Under Secretary - thinks so: IMF Article IV requires that the IMF exercise "firm surveillance" over the exchange rate policies of members. After the collapse of the Br…

October 27, 2004

Financial Markets
Morgan Stanley: China does not rely much on export led growth

Sometimes you read something and it makes you stop, because it is at odds with your existing sense of how the world economy is working. Drossos and Kinbrough’s argument that China does not rely on a…

July 11, 2005

China
China posts a $9.7 (call it 10) billion trade surplus in June

The $10 billion monthly surplus in June puts China on track for an annual trade surplus of $100 billion or more.The data brought China’s trade surplus for the first half of the year to $39.65bn, alre…

August 19, 2005

China
Comments on Dooley, Garber and Folkerts-Landau: part 1, China

As usual, Michael Dooley, Peter Garber and David Folkerts-Landau are provocative. And in a lot areas, the arguments made by those - like Dooley, Garber and Folkerts-Landau -- who argue that the Brett…

China Reserves Graph

April 3, 2006

China
Grassley-Baucus-Adams? And (another) long rant about the Economist …

The Treasury doesn't want to declare China to be guilty of manipulation.   Picking a fight with one of your biggest creditors isn't smart.  Right now, no one is buying more US debt (China buy…

Grassley-Baucus-Adams?  And (another) long rant about the Economist …

January 25, 2006

China
Chart envy. China’s goods exports v. US goods exports

Every now and again, I run a across a chart that is so good that I really, really wish I had thought to do it myself. James Pressler of Northern Trust's chart comparing Chinese goods exports v. U…

December 31, 2005

United States
Some things I got (more or less) right

Unfortunately, this list is a bit shorter than the list of things I got wrong.  Still, I think my crystal ball got a few things right.The rise in China's current account surplus.  I - influenced …