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December 10, 2004

Emerging Markets
Why Argentina should do its bond exchange, ASAP

Yields on Latin American bonds have not been this low for a long time. It is hard to believe that Brazil’s 20 year dollar bond trades at a yield of only 8%, and most long-term Brazilian bonds are in …

December 11, 2004

United States
The Global Test

My harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…

December 18, 2004

The world’s two most distorted prices …

My nominations.The renminbi-dollar at 8.28 renminbi per dollar -- a price that puts China’s per capita income at around, only a bit above Iraq’s per capita income. The ten year US government treasury…

December 27, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Beware of a 12 division budget and a 10 division tax base …

General Sinseki famously -- and it seems accurately -- warned of the risks of a "12 division strategy and a 10 division army." To paraphase the US Defense Secretary: You fight a war with the army y…

January 5, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Unraveling the mysteries of the Treasury yield curve

If you cannot tell from the title, this is going to be a rather wonky post. Nouriel and I are working on a paper on "Bretton Woods Two," so I have been delving into some data on the Treasury market. …