219 Results for:

November 20, 2004

United States
Large Players in Large Markets

One of the world’s ironies is that even as John Snow putters on about how currency values should be set by market forces, the market -- or at least the private market -- is now playing a comparativel…

February 21, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
The confused conservatives on the Washington Post oped page …

The Washington Post put out an oped on the partial privatization of Social Security over the weekend, which Kevin Drum appropriately jumped on.One item in the oped jumped out at me:The second risk i…

January 25, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
When will the bond market wake up

I know, I know, Morgan Stanley’s investors have spoken, and there is no bond market bubble. But the federal government certainly is swimming in a sea of red ink.I hope we have asked the Bank of Japan…

April 4, 2005

United States
McKinsey says the trade deficit does not matter

What is good for IBM (oops, Lenovo) is good for America.OK, that is a cheap shot.Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal published a column by Jon Hilsenrath that drew on work by Diana Farrell and the McKins…

June 18, 2006

Emerging Markets
A hard landing in 2006 - just not in the US?

Nouriel and I postulated back in early 2005 that there was a meaningful risk that the next “emerging market” crisis might come from the US – and it might come sooner than most expected.   The basic q…

May 18, 2006

United States
One more reason the dollar is under a bit of pressure …

The dollar’s strength in 2005 was a bit of  a puzzle to those who worried about  the scale of the US current account deficit.  Afterall, a growing current account deficit – and the deficit grew by ar…

feldstein2

October 23, 2006

Europe
One more sign we live in a new gilded age - Europe is once again the world’s financial center …

Back in the first Gilded Age, a booming America drew in capital from old Europe.  The US ran current account deficits, Europe ran a surpluses.   London was the world’s financial center, intermediatin…

europe_gilded_1

April 9, 2007

Monetary Policy
What have the world’s central banks been up to? The latest Treasury survey provides some clues

I suspect I am one of a very small number of people who eagerly awaits the publication of the Treasury’s annual survey for foreign portfolio investment.     Wall Street doesn’t find it particularly u…

June 8, 2007

Monetary Policy
When the right hand doesn’t talk to the left hand … (and some musing on this week’s move in the Treasury market)

 Total “official” (central bank) holdings of Agencies at the end of q1 2007 according to the Federal Reserve’s flow of funds: $537.4b (table L107)Agencies held by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York…

central_bank_demand_quarters

April 27, 2007

United States
US slumps, trade deficit doesn’t shrink …

The reasons why the US slowdown -- led by a fall in investment -- didn't lead to an improvement in the trade balance in the first quarter aren't that hard to find.   Consumption growth was ac…

us_export_growth_q1_07