Iran holds its presidential election on June 18, and turnout is expected to be low as the country deals with a battered economy and the ongoing pandemic. But does the Iranian president matter?

News of Iran’s upcoming release of U.S. nationals and the unfreezing of Iranian assets has stirred speculation of a new nuclear deal. But there are many obstacles to such a breakthrough.

Ebrahim Raisi, a staunch regime loyalist, can be expected to follow through on talks to revive the nuclear deal but rebuff attempts to further limit Iran’s weapons programs and regional behavior.