In the short term, Mnangagwa’s strategy of economic liberalization while maintaining Mugabe’s illiberal political system (despite some new faces at the top) is likely to succeed.

A victorious candidate must win 50 percent of the total vote plus one. If there is no outright winner, the top two candidates will be forced into a runoff, which would take place on September 8. Mnangagwa and Chamisa ran neck and neck in preelection polls, and there are many analysts now raising the possibility, even the likelihood, of a runoff.

This week’s alarming developments in Zimbabwe have prompted a curious response from President Emmerson Mnangagwa. A massive popular protest against fuel price increases, fed by broader frustration with an economy crippled by a currency crisis and decades of mismanagement, tipped into violence as security forces responded with a heavy hand, arresting over 600 people, leaving eight dead, and dozens injured.

In remarks delivered at his swearing-in ceremony on September 17 as the new U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, veteran diplomat Tibor Nagy hit all the right notes, stressing the challenges and opportunities inherent in Africa’s youthful demographics and emphasizing the enduring importance of governance in attracting trade and investment.

President Trump tweeted on August 22 that he has directed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to “closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures” and the “large scale killing of farmers.” In his tweet, the president quoted Fox News host Tucker Carlson that “South African government is now seizing land from white farmers.”

Mnangagwa's victory was promptly and shamefully endorsed by African Union observers and those from the Southern African Development Community, but questioned by observers from the European Union, the National Democratic institute and the International Republican Institute, and, most important, the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, a local NGO umbrella that deployed 6,500 observers around the country.

The people of Zimbabwe turned out in impressively large numbers—the Zimbabwe Election Commission reported 70 percent of voters turned out—on July 30 to choose a way forward for their country. The election, the first without Robert Mugabe on the ballot, was billed as a chance to close a painful chapter in the country's history, and bring real legitimacy, at last, to the government. It was a moment of hope.

Over the weekend, an explosion rocked White City Stadium in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, where President Emmerson Mnangagwa was campaigning on behalf of himself and the ruling party of the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) ahead of July 30 national elections.

Last month, Zimbabwean Permanent Secretary for Information Media and Broadcasting Services George Charamba told the press that Zimbabwe's upcoming July 30 elections are “an instrument of foreign policy.” This is a strange way to think about a democratic exercise, and it raises serious concerns about Zimbabwe's future.

Zimbabwe is facing considerable challenges, but if Mnangagwa takes reengagement seriously and if global partners continue to engage with the health sector, the country will have the tools to make remarkable progress.