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October 16, 2005

China
Is Tim Adams a closet Democrat? And some other musings on Snow’s trip to China

Clearly not, given his role in the Bush/ Cheney 2004 campaign. But he also seems to think China should develop a social insurance system to help spur domestic consumption.   Read Friday's Wall St…

October 28, 2005

United States
Yet more on Bernanke and the savings glut

Brad DeLong seems to have dug up what Dr. Bernanke thought about fiscal deficits before he discovered the global savings glut ...  namely, structural fiscal deficits tend to raise real interest rates…

January 5, 2006

China
Chinese Sterilization Watch

Three things to watch closely in 2006:The size of China's reserve increase.   Some say it is falling back from its recent $20 b or so monthly pace.  I am not convinced.   The amount of sterilizat…

January 25, 2006

China
Chart envy. China’s goods exports v. US goods exports

Every now and again, I run a across a chart that is so good that I really, really wish I had thought to do it myself. James Pressler of Northern Trust's chart comparing Chinese goods exports v. U…

January 11, 2006

China
China’s December trade

The most impressive part of China's most recent trade data:  18% y/y growth in December exports.  That pushed China's monthly exports up to $75.4 billion, and laid the basis for a $11 billion…

December 13, 2005

United States
Tomorrow’s US trade data …

should be interesting.   I'll miss the actual release though; I won't be back to my desk until later in the day. The number to watch, at least in my view: non-oil imports.   They have not bee…

February 6, 2006

China
China reserve watch

I often launch into rants triggered by statements about China's reserve growth - and about hot money flows - that seem to be based entirely on the reported increase on China's reserves. My be…

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May 31, 2006

China
Interesting recent work on China

Chinese stock markets have not been as frothy as the Chinese economy – though the Chinese market is doing better in 2006 than it has for a long time.  But what doesn’t go up as fast also doesn’t nece…

May 27, 2006

Emerging Markets
Have emerging markets changed more than the markets?

Is the lesson of the most recent bout of turmoil in the emerging world “emerging market economies have changed, but the markets have not”?How have emerging economies changed since 1997, the last time…

March 13, 2006

China
Is it 2003 all over again? What is going on in China?

Data coming out of China continues to confuse.   At least it confuses me. February's trade surplus was smaller than expected.  No big deal.  January's was larger than expected.   The combi…