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December 8, 2004

Politics and Government
Damaged Snow

If you were John Snow, would you stay knowing that you were at best the President’s second choice?Do DC’s conservative activists really value tax cuts more than financial stability? And does their op…

July 6, 2005

China
Worrying about debt to China

Jesse Eisinger has a nice Long and Short column exploring CNOOC’s bid for Unocal in the Wall Street Journal. I liked this quote from Lehman’s Ethan Harris:The Cnooc bid "strikes people that we really…

January 25, 2006

China
Chart envy. China’s goods exports v. US goods exports

Every now and again, I run a across a chart that is so good that I really, really wish I had thought to do it myself. James Pressler of Northern Trust's chart comparing Chinese goods exports v. U…

January 5, 2006

China
Chinese Sterilization Watch

Three things to watch closely in 2006:The size of China's reserve increase.   Some say it is falling back from its recent $20 b or so monthly pace.  I am not convinced.   The amount of sterilizat…

January 11, 2006

China
China’s December trade

The most impressive part of China's most recent trade data:  18% y/y growth in December exports.  That pushed China's monthly exports up to $75.4 billion, and laid the basis for a $11 billion…

May 31, 2006

China
Interesting recent work on China

Chinese stock markets have not been as frothy as the Chinese economy – though the Chinese market is doing better in 2006 than it has for a long time.  But what doesn’t go up as fast also doesn’t nece…

February 6, 2006

China
China reserve watch

I often launch into rants triggered by statements about China's reserve growth - and about hot money flows - that seem to be based entirely on the reported increase on China's reserves. My be…

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December 13, 2005

United States
Tomorrow’s US trade data …

should be interesting.   I'll miss the actual release though; I won't be back to my desk until later in the day. The number to watch, at least in my view: non-oil imports.   They have not bee…

May 27, 2006

Emerging Markets
Have emerging markets changed more than the markets?

Is the lesson of the most recent bout of turmoil in the emerging world “emerging market economies have changed, but the markets have not”?How have emerging economies changed since 1997, the last time…

March 13, 2006

China
Is it 2003 all over again? What is going on in China?

Data coming out of China continues to confuse.   At least it confuses me. February's trade surplus was smaller than expected.  No big deal.  January's was larger than expected.   The combi…