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January 18, 2007

Financial Markets
Do lower oil prices mean the end of the saving glut?

That is question Justin Lahart raises in his Wall Street Journal column. His answer is a qualified yes.  I would answer with a qualified maybe.  Or maybe with a muted yes.   The oil exporters have sh…

Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money

January 11, 2007

Financial Markets
Cracks in the GCC’s commitment to the dollar peg?

From Simon Derrick of the Bank of New York. Reuters reports that central bank governors of the UAE will meet in March to discuss currency pegs. The agency cites Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi wh…

Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money

January 9, 2007

United States
Nice work if you can get it — the joys of exorbitant privilege

I spent a bit of time trying to estimate how market moves in 2006 will impact the US net international investment position (the NIIP is the gap between all US external assets and all US external liab…

niip_decomposition
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money

January 7, 2007

Monetary Policy
Dollar and euros — not dollars or euros. And more dollars than euros in 2006

I have every incentive in the world to find evidence that central banks have diversified away from the dollar.   I like being right as much as the next guy.   Back in early 2005, Nouriel and I -- bui…

dollar_euro_reserves_1
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money

May 7, 2006

United States
Searching for the origins of dark matter

Hausmann and Sturzenegger, if nothing else, have spurred a lot of work with a catchy title and a bit of clever accounting. We now know that:Dark matter stems more from low (reported) returns on forei…

image002
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser Follow the Money