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January 2, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Social Security Crisis in 2018? Ridiculous

Take a look at this Washington Post article by Jonathan Weisman, which the big blogs have justly pounced on. The initial framing of Weisman’s article is just way, way off. Social security in no way…

March 4, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Undisputed Unaffordability

That is a phrase from the Washington Post’s oped on Social Security.I think it goes a bit too far, so I want to dispute the "undisputed unaffordability" of Social Security.I do not dispute that there…

June 29, 2005

Capital Flows
Selling off little pieces of yourself

If the US wanted to fund its current account deficit by selling equity, it would need to sell off the equivalent of 40 Unocal’s a year -- whether Chinese state firms, European firms, Japanese insurer…

August 19, 2005

China
Comments on Dooley, Garber and Folkerts-Landau: part 1, China

As usual, Michael Dooley, Peter Garber and David Folkerts-Landau are provocative. And in a lot areas, the arguments made by those - like Dooley, Garber and Folkerts-Landau -- who argue that the Brett…

China Reserves Graph

November 16, 2005

United States
The Twin Deficits … an early look into 2006

I wanted to try to pull together some of my thoughts after various data releases of last week:The US September trade dataThe Chinese October trade dataThe October US budget dataAnd from a bit earlier…

2004 non oil trade

November 6, 2005

Economics
What risks should the American workforce assume in a more global economy?

Sebastian Mallaby had an interesting column in last Monday's Washington Post.   Mallaby highlights what he calls the biggest economic argument of the day -- namely, what role does the government …

November 15, 2005

Economics
RGE Econoblog with Sebastian Mallaby

OK, not a true Wall Street Journal style Econoblog.   But Sebastian Mallaby of the Washington Post noted my response to his October 31st column, and has agreed to allow me to publish our email exchan…

December 14, 2005

United States
Better try to find some more dark matter (October trade data)

It is pretty obvious that the US October trade deficit was quite large, even by recent American standards.   Taking into account expected valuation changes (US assets in Europe are currently on the b…

February 13, 2006

Monetary Policy
It is back. Bretton Woods 2 (central bank financing of the US)

Some would say it never really went away.Emerging market economies did not stop accumulating reserves in 2005.  Best I can tell, adjusting for valuation effects and including all the foreign assets o…

March 27, 2006

United States
Good thing Michael Mandel read my 2004 paper, not my 2005 paper -

With the 2004 paper on US external sustainability, there is at least some possibility that Nouriel's and my dire forecasts will prove to be right.   The core argument of that paper is that the co…